In Sunday's Money section of the NY Times, Richard Thaler explores how human nature and the depressed global economy are colliding with an unfortunate outcome.
"Fear and anxiety don't bring out the best in anyone," Thaler writes. "Along with making people irritable, uncertainty can create paralysis."
Thaler notes an experiment conducted by Princeton psychologist Eldar Shafir that illustrates how people, faced with a decision in the face of uncertainty often simply don't act or wait "to see how things shape up before they act."
American corporations are setting on bundles of cash - shit loads to those of you looking for a more crass way to illustrate the quantity - Google, for example, is holding on to $39 billion dollars. Why?
According to a survey of chief financial officers by Duke University, they are "waiting for economic uncertainty to decline."
To that Thaler responds that we have infrastructure throughout the country that needs repair and replacement especially bridges.
"We can begin the inevitable process of rebuilding this infrastructure now, when construction costs are low and borrowing costs are essentially zero...."
"If Greece defaults, American cars will not suddenly become amphibious."
Yet, Congress is too paralyzed to act. Businesses too.
"As a shareholder, I would worry about a company that says it can't find investments that can reasonably be expected to earn well above the tiny return of its cash."
Then Thaler cites a compelling statistic.
"Loosening the purse strings just a little could have big effects on the economy. Suppose that American companies reduced their domestic cash holdings by just 10 percent and invested that $200 billion in productive investments ..... these investments would spur growth in gross domestic product next year by about 1.3% and reduce unemployment by almost 0.7%."
Households aren't immune to the failure to invest at a time when costs are so low.
"Some homeowners are already embracing the idea: one of the economy's few encouraging signs is that residential remodeling permits were recently up 24 percent over the previous year."
It's time for all of you who are not facing personal financial dilemmas to return to the economy and make the car purchase you've been delaying, replace the aging furnace or buy the snow blower you're probably going to need this winter.
Or just repave your driveway.
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